50% of Californians contacted immediately after President Barack Obama concluded his state of the union address Tuesday night, 01/24/12, said the speech was “just right,” compared to 29% who thought speech too ambitious and 9% thought it too timid. By 2:1, those who watched the speech say Obama will be re-elected in November 2012.

57% say Obama has the right plan for American energy independence; 22% say he has the wrong plan and 13% say Obama has no plan for energy independence.

Of all Californians, not just those who watched the speech, 34% say the USA is headed in the right direction; 59% say the USA is headed in the wrong direction.

33% of Californians say the USA is better off than it was a year ago, at the last State of the Union address; 38% say the USA is worse off. 28% say they personally are better off than a year ago, 34% say they are worse off.

Research conducted 01/24/12 for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Full poll results here.

For Governor: Rob McKenna (R) 3 points atop Jay Inslee (D), a tight fight as each previous SurveyUSA poll has shown. McKenna today is seen as stronger on managing the state budget and on education. Inslee is seen as stronger on the environment and slightly stronger on social issues. 1 in 3 voters, disproportionately Independents and Moderates, say they may change their mind. Contest likely to be fiercely fought through 2012.

For U.S. Senator:  Maria Cantwell (D) 9 points atop Michael Baumgartner (R). Incumbent well positioned.

For Attorney General: Bob Ferguson (D) and Reagan Dunn (R) effectively even in the fight to fill the seat being vacated by Rob McKenna. The Republican leads among men; the Democrat leads among women.
On Washington state’s numerous ballot measures:

* Same-sex marriage: WA split.

* Half cent increase in sales tax: 3:2 supported.

* Legalizing marijuana: 5:4 supported.

* Removal of automatic ticketing cameras: 2:1 supported.

* Adding new state income tax on the wealthy: 5:3 supported.

* Banning plastic bags: 5:3 opposed.

WA Republicans say Mitt Romney has the best chance to beat Barack Obama in November.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 01/12/12 through 01/16/12. Of them, 617 were registered to vote. This research was conducted multi-mode, using blended sample. Respondents who use a home telephone (78% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

An overwhelming majority of Florida Republicans tell SurveyUSA that they will watch tonight’s 01/23/12 NBC Republican Presidential debate, and of those who will watch, nearly half say they may change their mind depending on what they see, according to an exclusive poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa.

50% of debate watchers say their mind is made up.
44% say they will be watching tonight’s debate with an open mind.

Who will win next week’s Florida primary? 43% say Mitt Romney will win. 42% say Newt Gingrich will win. Caution: Republicans were not asked who they will vote for. They were asked, regardless of who they may vote for, who do they think will win the 01/31/12 primary.

Half of Florida Republicans say Republicans will capture Florida’s 29 pivotal electoral college votes in November 2012 no matter which candidate the Republicans nominate. 1/3 of Republicans say whether Republicans carry Florida in November depends on which candidate the GOP nominates.

Asked who has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama in November, Florida Republicans split. 41% say Romney has has the best chance; 36% say Gingrich has the best chance.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. 500 registered Republican voters from the state of Florida were interviewed by SurveyUSA 01/22/12, after the results of the 01/21/12 South Carolina primary were known, but before NBC’s scheduled 01/23/12 debate at USF. 89% of Republicans were reached on a home phone and interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. 11% of Republicans were unreachable on a home phone and were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

3 weeks to the Florida GOP Presidential Primary, Mitt Romney is positioned to capture the state’s 50 delegates, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV in Tampa.On the eve of the New Hampshire Primary, and before South Carolina votes, Florida sets up: Romney at 36%, Newt Gingrich at 25%, Rick Santorum at 17%, with Ron Paul and others in single digits. Florida’s primary is “closed”; only registered Republicans may vote; unlike Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, independents may not vote.

Encouraging signs for Mitt Romney:

• Among evangelicals, Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the evangelical vote.

• Among pro-life voters, Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the pro-life vote.

• Among voters who say same-sex couples should be given “no legal recognition,” Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the “no legal recognition” vote.

• Among moderates (one quarter of likely Florida Republican primary voters), Romney leads 2:1. Among conservatives (half of FL GOP primary voters), Romney leads 3:2. Only among those who describe themselves as “very conservative” (one quarter of primary voters) does Santorum nose ahead of Romney, with Gingrich right behind.

• Romney leads in all 5 regions of the state.

• Romney leads among lower-income, middle-income and upper income voters.

• Romney leads among less-educated voters and more-educated voters.

• Romney leads among both men and women.

• Romney leads among both young and old.

• Only among tea-party members (15% of likely primary voters), does Romney finish 3rd, behind Gingrich and Santorum.

Compared to SurveyUSA’s most recent poll in Florida, released one month ago, after Herman Cain had dropped out but before interest groups in Iowa and elsewhere began attacking Newt Gingrich, the contest is materially changed. Then, Gingrich led Romney in Florida by 22 points. Today, Gingrich trails Romney by 11, a 33-point swing. Then, prior to a strong finish in Iowa, Santorum in Florida was at 2%. Today, Santorum in Florida is at 17%. Click on the “Triangle T” where you see it, to open interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive.

• Romney’s net favorability among Florida GOP Primary voters is Plus 39 (57% favorable, 18% unfavorable).
• Gingrich’s net favorability is Plus 30 (51% favorable, 21% unfavorable).
• Santorum’s net favorability is Plus 29 (47% favorable, 18% unfavorable).
• Paul’s net favorability is Minus 28 (18% favorable, 46% unfavorable).

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. Using voter list sample from Aristotle, SurveyUSA interviewed 500 registered Florida Republicans who have voted in past primary elections and who identified themselves as being certain to vote in this primary. All interviews conducted 01/08/12, after the 01/07/12 ABC News debate and after the 01/08/12 NBC News debate, but before the 01/10/12 New Hampshire Primary. Interviews conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents who use a landline (home) telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the cooperation of the respondent, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview. In these results, Mitt Romney does equally well among home-phone and cell-phone respondents. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum do materially worse among cell-phone respondents. Gingrich would trail Romney by 8 points, not 11 points, if cell-phone respondents had not been included. Florida should have 99 “winner take all” delegates at stake, but because Florida jumped the line and moved its primary earlier than had been recommended by the Republican National Committee, the state is penalized and will award 50 instead of 99 delegates. Unlike many other states in 2012, Florida’s delegates are not apportioned among the candidates. 1,144 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

Newt Gingrich of Georgia runs away with the Georgia primary, in small part because fellow Georgian Herman Cain has dropped out of the race, and in large part because every part of the Republican Party has united behind him, according to a SurveyUSA poll  conducted for WXIA-TV Atlanta.4 weeks until the first vote is cast in Iowa and 3 months until the last Super Tuesday vote is counted in Georgia, it’s Gingrich 65%, Mitt Romney 12%, and everyone else far back.

Among likely Georgia primary voters, Gingrich’s support is above 60% among both pro-life and pro-choice voters, among both rich and poor voters, both evangelical and non-evangelical voters, males and females, conservatives and moderates, educated and uneducated, and in every region of the state. Only among Independents, who are eligible to vote in the Georgia Republican primary, does Ron Paul creep up to 16%, but Gingrich still leads Paul among Independents by 3:1.

By the time Super Tuesday comes around 03/06/12, it is possible that only Gingrich and Romney will be the only two candidates left battling for the Republican nomination. SurveyUSA finds important learning in a head-to-head match-up between Gingrich and Romney. 70% of primary voters who would vote for Gingrich in a head-to-head match-up say they do so enthusiastically. 52% of those who would vote for Romney in a head-to-head match-up say they do so “with reservations.”

Obama Loses to Either Republican Candidate: Looking ahead to a November general election, Georgia’s 16 electoral votes remain safely red. Among all registered Georgia voters, Gingrich defeats Obama 48% to 42%, and Romney defeats Obama 49% to 42%. In 2008, John McCain carried Georgia by 5 points.

61% Favor Some Form of Legalized Gambling. Georgia voters support legalizing gambling, SurveyUSA finds. 26% say they want to legalize casino gambling only. 7% want to legalize pari-mutuel wagering on horses only. 29% want to legalize both casino gambling and pari-mutuel wagering. A minority, 37%, does not want to legalize any form of gambling.

In Some Parts of State, Support for an Increase in Sales Tax to Fund Transportation Improvements: 55% of Georgia voters say they approve of a 1 penny increase in the sales tax to pay for transportation improvements. Since the improvements would be made regionally, only in the regions that vote for the tax increase, it’s important to note that in greater Atlanta, and in South and East Georgia, the measure is favored almost 2:1. But in Northwest Georgia, voters split, 47% in favor, 47% opposed. By way of contrast, strong Republicans oppose the tax 5:4. Strong Democrats favor the tax 7:2.

Whites and Blacks Differ on Whether to Require Volunteer Community Service to Receive Unemployment Benefits: Among all Georgia voters, 59% favor a proposal to require those who receive unemployment insurance to volunteer to perform community service in order to receive benefits, 35% oppose. But whites and blacks see the measure in stark contrast: whites back the measure by 37 points. Blacks oppose the measure by 12 points, a 49 point difference.

Herman Cain Has a Minus 13 Net Favorability Rating: This research was conducted in the several days following Herman Cain’s announcement 12/03/11 to suspend his campaign for President. Today, among all Georgia voters, Cain is viewed positively by 24%, viewed negatively by 37%. Among Republicans, Cain is still viewed positively. Among Independents and Democrats, he is viewed overwhelmingly negatively. By contrast, among all Georgia voters, Gingrich is Minus 2, Romney is Minus 12, and Obama is Minus 12.

Cellphone respondents and home phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,364 state of Georgia adults 12/06/11 and 12/07/11. Of them, 1,176 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 362 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 03/06/12 Republican Primary. This research was conducted multimode. Respondents who use a landline (home) telephone (76% of registered voters), were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Those respondents who do not use a home telephone (24% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. Cellphone respondents are more likely to support a transportation tax, more likely to favor legalized gambling, more likely to support the requirement of volunteer service as a condition of receiving unemployment benefits, more likely to support Ron Paul for the Republican nomination, and more likely to vote Democrat in a general election for President.

8 weeks to the Florida GOP Primary, Newt Gingrich resoundingly defeats Mitt Romney, with no other candidates worth discussing, according to a SurveyUSA poll  of 500 likely Republican primary voters conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa.Gingrich gets 45%, Romney 23%, no one else is above 6%.

• Among those who describe themselves as moderate, Romney leads 3:2.
• Among those who tell SurveyUSA they are “very conservative,” Gingrich leads 3:1.
• Among Evangelicals, Gingrich leads 5:2.
• Among members of the Tea Party, Gingrich leads 5:2.
• Among pro-life voters, Gingrich leads 5:2.
• Gingrich leads by 20 or more points in every region of the state except Southeast Florida, where Romney runs 3 points ahead of Gingrich.
• Gingrich’s Favorability among likely Florida primary voters is now an extraordinary Plus 54.
• Romney’s Favorability among likely Florida primary voters is now Plus 30.
• By contrast, and as a point of differentiation, Ron Paul’s favorability is Minus 11, Rick Perry’s favorability is Minus 9.

Anticipating that by the time the Florida primary is held, after Iowa, after New Hampshire, and after South Carolina, that some 2nd-tier candidates may have dropped out of the race, SurveyUSA asked likely primary voters who they would vote for if the only two remaining candidates, at the time of the Florida primary, were Gingrich and Romney.

In a two-man face-off, Gingrich defeats Romney 57% to 30%.

Of importance, SurveyUSA asked voters after that head-to-head match-up, whether they cast their ballot enthusiastically, or with reservations. The theory being tested is that Romney supporters have less enthusiasm for their candidate than do Gingrich supporters. This is not borne out in the data.

• 62% of Gingrich supporters casat their vote enthusiastically; 35% cast their vote with reservations.
• 63% of Romney supporters cast their vote enthusiastically, 33% cast their vote with reservations.

Cellphone and home phone respondents included in this research. Using voter list sample from Aristotle, SurveyUSA interviewed 500 registered Florida Republicans who have voted in past primary elections and who identified themselves as being certain to vote in this primary. Research conducted 12/05/11 and 12/06/11, days after Herman Cain withdrew from the race. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents who use a landline (home) telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the cooperation of the respondent, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview. In these results, cellphone and home phone respondents vote similarly.

In an election for President of the United States today, Democrat Barack Obama holds Washington State’s 12 Electoral College Votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll for KING-TV Seattle. In head-to-head hypothetical elections today, it is:

* Barack Obama 49%
* Mitt Romney 41%
* Democratic Margin of Victory: 8 points.

* Barack Obama 56%
* Newt Gingrich 37%
* Democratic Margin of Victory: 19 points

* In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain in Washington State by 17 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Washington state adults 11/21/11 through 11/23/11. Of them, 613 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November 2012 presidential election. This research was conducted multimode. Respondents who use a home telephone (83% of likely voters), were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (17% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. Obama leads Romney by 6 points among home-phone respondents, but leads by 16 points among cell-phone respondents (a 10-point difference). When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads Romney by 8.

11 months till ballots are mailed in the election for President of the United States, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama is poised to hold Oregon’s 7 electoral votes, according to a poll for KATU-2 TV news in Portland.
Today, in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups between the two Republican front-runners, it’s:

* Obama 48%
* Romney 40%

* Obama 51%
* Gingrich 37%

* If Romney is the candidate, Obama leads among men by 5 points. If Gingrich is the candidate, Obama leads among men by 12 points.
* If Romney is the candidate, independents split. If Gingrich is the candidate, Independents break for Obama.

* Romney has a Minus 20 favorability rating: 21% see him favorably, 41% see him unfavorably.
* Gingrich has a Minus 30 favorability rating: 20% see him favorably, 50% see him unfavorably.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 600 state of Oregon adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/18/11 through 11/21/11. Of the adults, 528 were registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions. This research was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home telephone (69% of adults, 70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (31% of adults, 30% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet, or other electronic device. In this survey, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote similarly. Obama leads Romney by 10 points among home-phone respondents and by 5 points among cell-phone respondents. Obama leads Gingrich by 13 points among home-phone respondents and by 15 points among cell-phone respondents.

Sure, it’s early, and yes, a lot will change, but in an preview of the 2012 Presidential election, cell phone voters (those without a home telephone, typically undercounted in opinion polls), vote sufficiently Democrat to keep Mitt Romney to just a single-digit lead over Barack Obama, and, for the moment, cause Obama to defeat Newt Gingrich.

Kansas’ 6 electoral votes will almost certainly stay in the Republican column (John McCain carried the state by 15 points in 2008), but in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups between the two Republican front-runners today, 11/22/11, it’s:

* Romney 48%.
* Obama 39%.

* Obama 45%.
* Gingrich 40%

* Among respondents who use a home phone, Romney leads Obama by 14. But among respondents who do not use a home phone (the cell-phone respondents), Obama leads Romney by 4, an 18-point difference.

* Among respondents who use a home phone, Gingrich leads Obama by 3 points. But among respondents who do not use a home phone, Obama leads Gingrich by 24 points, a 27-point difference.

* Romney has a Minus 9 favorability rating: 25% see him favorably, 34% see him unfavorably.
* Gingrich has a Minus 22 favorability rating: 25% see him favorably, 45% see him unfavorably.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 600 state of Kansas adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/18/11 through 11/21/11. Of the adults, 510 were registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions. This research was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home telephone (70% of adults, 73% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (30% of adults, 27% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet, or other electronic device. In this survey, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote similarly.